The All Blacks enter their final engagement of an eventful year clinging to a long-playing record of just one Test defeat in the British Isles during the last 15 years, England at Twickenham in 2012.
Had it not been for Beauden Barrett’s flying cover tackle in the final seconds at BT Murrayfield last week, Stuart Hogg would have given Finn Russell a shot at history. In missing out by the finest of fine margins, Scotland left nobody in any doubt that the double World Cup winners are beatable. There was a time not that long ago when the Scots would have been satisfied at running the Kiwis close, never mind going just about as close as any team could without winning. If that mindset changed under Vern Cotter, then Gregor Townsend has taken Scottish ambition to a higher plane ahead of next year’s NatWest 6 Nations. Under his direction, they dared to take the best on at their own high-octane game in a spectacle of handling and running which made it one the best Tests of the autumn series to date and one of the best of the year. Its relevance to this Saturday is that Scotland have shown Wales the way. New Zealand’s appearance at Principality Stadium renews the Warren Gatland-Steve Hansen rivalry a mere four months after the climax to the drawn Test series in Auckland. There has been such a startling change in All Black personnel that only one-third of the starting XV at Eden Park was still there in Edinburgh – Barrett, Aaron Smith, Sam Whitelock, Sam Cane and Kieran Read. Much the same can be said of Wales, handicapped by the loss of six current Lions including the three Test starters in Auckland, Liam Williams, Jonathan Davies and Sam Warburton. It has made their change to a more expansive style all the more challenging. Not before time, Gatland has given youth its fling, promoting new players fore and aft, including Owen Williams at inside centre, a position monopolised by Jamie Roberts for the best part of ten years. While they will be hard pushed to match the Scots, Wales do have the law of averages on their side. A fat lot of good it has done them so far, as a run of 29 straight defeats testifies. Unlike Scotland or Ireland there has been no draw to punctuate the losses which, in Wales’ case stretch back to the end of Coronation Year in 1953 when Clem Thomas’ prodigious cross-kick provided the winning try for Newport’s Olympian wing, Ken Jones. Of that Wales team from December 1953, Courtney Meredith is the sole survivor. The Neath prop, now in his 92nd year, reappeared against Bob Stuart’s All Blacks the following month, on his home ground at The Gnoll for a combined Neath-Aberavon team. They lost, 11-5, but not before Meredith rewarded a crowd of 17,000 with the only home try. Incredibly, three of the four setbacks the All Blacks have suffered in Wales during the 64 years since going down 13-8 at the Arms Park were on non-Test occasions – at Newport in 1963, Llanelli in 1972 and the Barbarians in Cardiff the following year. Their only Test defeat on Welsh soil was inflicted by France in a World Cup quarter-final ten years ago. Wales came closest to beating New Zealand during the professional era 13 years ago. They led three times on a night when Gavin Henson’s last penalty forced Richie McCaw’s team to hang on for the narrowest of wins. November 20, 2004 in Cardiff: Wales 25, New Zealand 26 Wales: G Thomas, capt; T Shanklin, S Parker, G Henson, S Williams; Stephen Jones, D Peel; G Jenkins, M Davies, A Jones; B Cockbain, G Llewellyn; D Jones, C Charvis, M Owen. Substitutes: S Jones, D Jones, R Jones, M Williams, G Cooper, C Sweeney, R Williams. Tries: Shanklin, Davies. Penalties: S Jones 4, Henson. New Zealand: M Muliaina; D Howlett, C Laulala, A Mauger, J Rokocoko; D Carter, P Weepu; T Woodcock, K Mealamu, G Somerville; C Jack, A Williams; R So’oialo, R McCaw, capt., M Tuiali’i. Substitutes: A Oliver, C Hayman, R Thorne, M Holah, B Kelleher, M Nonu, R Gear. Tries: Rokocoko 2, Muliaina. Conversions: Carter. Penalties: Carter 3. Referee: Tony Spreadbury (England)
The All Blacks have found too many unlikely escape routes over the years for it to be dismissed as a matter of luck. They found the unlikeliest one of all in Dublin four years ago despite Ireland hitting them with a triple-try whammy within the opening quarter. They came back from 0-19 but were still five behind when Ryan Crotty finished off a multi-phase move in the second minute of stoppage time. Aaron Cruden nailed the wide-angled conversion at the second attempt after Ireland’s early charge at the first. November 24, 2013 at the Aviva Stadium: Ireland 22, New Zealand 24. Ireland: R Kearney, T Bowe, B O’Driscoll (L Fitzgerald, 53), G D’Arcy, D Kearney; J Sexton (I Madigan, 76), C Murray; C Healy (J McGrath, 69), R Best, M Ross (D Fitzpatrick, 65); D Toner (M McCarthy, 65), P O’Connell; P O’Mahony (K McLaughlin, 56), S O’Brien, J Heaslip. Substitute not used: I Boss. Tries: Murray, Best, R Kearney. Conversions: Sexton 2. Penalty: Sexton. New Zealand: I Dagg (R Crotty, 52); C Jane (B Barrett, 66), B Smith, M Nonu, J Savea; A Cruden, A Smith; W Crockett (B Franks, 60), A Hore (D Coles, 42) C Faumuina (O Franks, 56); L Romano, S Whitelock; S Luatua (L Messam, 56), R McCaw, capt, K Read. Substitutes not used: S Cane, TJ Perenara. Tries: Savea, B Franks, Crotty. Conversions: Cruden 3. Penalty: Cruden. Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales). November 12, 1983 at Murrayfield: Scotland 25, New Zealand 25 Jim Pollock’s late try gave the Scots a fleeting chance of victory. Peter Dods, immaculate in front of goal all match, almost landed the conversion from close to the touchline but in the end Jim Aitken’s team were happy to hold on for a draw. Scotland: P Dods; J Pollock, A Kennedy, D Johnston, R Baird; J Rutherford, R Laidlaw; J Aitken, capt., C Deans, I Milne; B Cuthbertson, T Smith; J Calder, J Beattie, I Paxton. Try: Pollock. Penalties: Dods 5. Drop goals: Rutherford 2. New Zealand: R Deans; S Wilson, capt., S Pokere, B Fraser, W Taylor; W Smith, A Donald; B McGrattan, H Reid, S Crichton; G Braid, A Anderson; M Shaw, J Hobbs, M Mexted. Substitute: C Green for Taylor. Tries: Fraser 2, Jobbs. Conversions: Deans 2. Penalties: Deans 3. Referee: Rene Hourquet (France).
And the last time they were beaten in Britain or Ireland: December 1, 2012 at Twickenham England 38, New Zealand 21 England: A Goode; C Ashton, M Tuilagi (J Joseph, 66), B Barritt, M Brown; O Farrell (F Burns, 64), B Youngs (D Care, 68); A Corbisiero (M Vunipola, 66), T Youngs (D Paice, 72) , D Cole (D Wilson, 72); J Launchbury (C Lawes, 66), G Parling; T Wood, C Robshaw, capt., B Morgan (J Haskell, 57). Tries: Ashton, Tuilagi, Barritt. Conversion: Farrell. Penalties: Farrell 4, F Burns 2. Drop goal: Farrell 5. New Zealand: I Dagg (B Smith, 71); C Jane, C Smith, M Nonu, J Savea; D Carter (A Cruden, 64), A Smith (P Weepu, 64) ; T Woodcock (W Crockett, 66), K Mealamu (D Coles, 62), O Franks (C Faumuina, 52); B Retallick (L Romano, 48), S Whitelock; L Messam (V Vito, 63), R McCaw, capt., K Read. Tries: Savea 2, Read. Conversions: Carter 2, Cruden. Referee: George Clancey (Ireland)
