AWS Game Notes

Round 5: The key statistical trends

So here we go.

So here we go.

Seven months after the Championship was put on ice, Super Saturday is here and has brought three exciting games to sit back and enjoy.

Wales and Scotland provide a tasty appetiser before the feast truly begins when England visit Italy and France host leaders Ireland.

The permutations should be tattooed onto your brain by now.

Ireland will wrap it up with a bonus-point win but if they fail to score four tries in Paris, England can jump in.

France can also win their first Championship in a decade if they beat Ireland and better England’s result in Rome.

Simple? Not a bit of it. Intriguing? You bet.

So, to help you kick-back and make sense of the day’s play, we’ve dived into the MatchStats, Powered by AWS, to highlight what to look out for.


Parc y Scarlets plays host to a fun contest as Scotland seek a first win away at Wales since 2002 but the omens aren’t good for Gregor Townsend and the visitors.

Wales have won 14 of their last 16 meetings with Scotland, nine of the last ten at home and have scored at least three tries in the last eight.

But take a deep breath Scotland fans because the 2020 stats are not quite as bleak.

Townsend’s side have enjoyed more territory than any other side in the Championship with 55 per cent, while no-one has carried the ball for more metres than captain Stuart Hogg’s 377.

Of course, it’s what you do with the ball that counts and Scotland have turned the ball over too many times in good positions. But in recalled fly-half Finn Russell, they might just have the key to unlock that undoubted talent.

For Wales, the day is all about Alun Wyn Jones on the occasion of his 149th cap – a new world record, breaking Richie McCaw’s 148.

Wayne Pivac’s troops are the Championship’s top point-scorers with 109 but are hoping to avoid a fourth straight Championship loss for the first time in 13 years.


England need a bonus point against Italy to become a major contender and the history books make for pleasant reading.

They have never lost to Italy in 26 matches, scored four or more tries in their last six encounters and 19 on their last three trips to Rome.

However, expect England to change their style ever so slightly as they go in search of tries and points.

In the 2020 Championship, no side has recorded fewer entries into their opponent’s 22 than England’s 7.3, while they have also kicked the most – taking to the air 138 times.

They have also recorded the fewest metres made with 1,973, far below Italy’s table-topping 3,123. England have found a successful formula in this Championship but may have to take more risks in Rome.

Also keep an eye on England’s lineout, where six of their nine Championship tries have originated from – that’s the highest ratio of all six teams.

Italy do have some fire power in their line-up. No-one has won more than Jake Polledri’s six turnovers, while trickly full-back Matteo Minozzi has made nine offloads.


Saving the best for last, France and Ireland do battle at 8.05pm GMT in Paris and it is only then that we will know where the title is heading.

France will know exactly how many points they need after England’s game with Italy but are already well-aware that victory is a must.

Les Bleus have only won one of their last eight Championship games with Ireland though, while the Men in Green have edged two of their last four meetings by fewer than three points.

However, Ireland need a bonus-point win to secure the title and have not crossed the whitewash at the Stade de France since 2014.

Indeed, only once have they scored four tries or more away to France and that came in 2006 – a game they still lost 43-31.

However, with 27 tries between them in this Championship, expect plenty to follow tomorrow night.

Ireland will be hoping they can dominate the breakdown and add to their Championship-leading 31 turnovers, while, in possession, Jacob Stockdale has more line-breaks than any other player (8).

How France perform at the scrum will also be key. Les Bleus have a 100 per cent success rate when feeding the ball but have also committed ten penalties. That’s contributed to their Championship-leading 41 penalties in total.

Whichever side executes better will have a golden chance of winning the 2020 Guinness Six Nations. Sit back and enjoy.