Opta tells us that 58% of the matches in 2024 have been decided by four points or fewer. That's the highest rate since 1985, when there were only five nations competing. Interestingly, that year saw Ireland go undefeated - a Triple Crown a draw with France - as they took the title. They would have to wait another 24 years until winning it again.
So we know that this is already the closest edition of Guinness Men’s Six Nations when it comes to match results, with six games decided by three points or fewer already. This weekend’s Super Saturday features three fixtures whose outcomes are arguably all difficult to predict - particularly following a sensational round four just gone.
Those games decided by the narrowest of margins in 2024 have been memorable encounters, with two coming on the same day over the past weekend. A single point separated hot favourites Ireland against victors England at Twickenham on Saturday, while Italy bucked an 11-year trend to win a Championship match in Rome as they beat Scotland by two points.
Kicks at goal, whether missed or successful, have highlighted the importance of the boot; not least in Italy’s earlier encounter against France when Paolo Garbisi’s hastily-teed penalty hit the upright in dramatic fashion to leave both sides level.
In fact, signs of what was to come from Italy were there for all to see in round one, when they pushed England all the way in Rome - even leading at half time - before losing by three points.
The opening two rounds left Wales ruing what could have been as they lost to Scotland and England by one and two points respectively.
If 2024 has taught us as we go into a massive Super Saturday, it’s that games can be determined by the finest of margins, and the ones that are remembered for years to come normally are.
