It took the best part of eight months but Round 4 of the 2020 Guinness Six Nations was finally completed as Ireland beat Italy in Dublin to set us up for a mouth-watering Super Saturday.
Currently top of the table on 14 points after the bonus-point 50-17 victory over Italy, Ireland are the only team with their fate entirely in their own hands.
Another bonus-point victory away to France in Round 5 will give them an unassailable lead at the top of the pile on 19 points, regardless of England’s result in Italy, and ensure Andy Farrell lifts the trophy in his first Championship in charge.
If Ireland secure a victory without the four-try bonus point while England do notch a five-point win in Rome, then both teams would be level on 18 points and the destination of the title would come down to points difference.
Ireland currently have +38 to England’s +15, so as long as England’s margin of victory wasn’t 24 points greater than Ireland’s, Farrell’s troops would claim a fourth title in seven years.
If they end up level on both points AND points difference, then Ireland hold a significant advantage in the next tiebreaker – tries scored (14 to 9).
If England lose or draw against Italy, then a win of any description or even a draw for Ireland would see them lift the title.
However, if Ireland lose in Paris then their title chances are over.
England, sitting second on 13 points, need to beat Italy, preferably with a bonus point, and then keep a keen eye on France’s clash with Ireland later that evening.
Their simplest route to the title is a bonus-point win over Italy coupled with Ireland failing to beat France. That would hand England the title UNLESS Les Bleus also got a five-point win in Paris and their margin of victory was at least two points greater than England’s.
If England end level on 18 points with Ireland atop the table (an England five-point win and an Ireland four-point win) then it comes down to points difference and the Red Rose trail Ireland by 23 in that department, necessitating a margin of victory over Italy that is 24 points greater than Ireland’s over France.
If both England and France register four-point or five-point victories to finish level on points atop the table, then it will again come down to points difference, with England holding a +15 to +13 advantage.
For France to win the 2020 Guinness Six Nations title, they must beat Ireland in Paris AND better England’s result against Italy.
Les Bleus are currently level on points with England, so a bonus-point victory over Ireland coupled with Eddie Jones’ troops losing to, drawing with or beating Italy without a bonus point would hand them the title.
If both France and England get a four-point victory or a five-point victory, then it would come down to points difference. With Les Bleus on +13 and England on +15, France would need to notch a margin of victory at least two points greater than England’s.
If the teams end level on points difference, then it’s advantage France as the next tiebreaker is number of tries scored and Fabien Galthie’s men have dotted down 13 times to England’s 9.
