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FANTASY RUGBY GEEK CRUNCHES THE NUMBERS FOR ROUND THREE

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Round three is upon us, but who do the stats suggest we should be investing our fantasy stars in?

Digging into the metrics for the top fantasy performers from the first two rounds, combined with historical statistics from the Championship, could just point us in the direction of some points-scoring opportunities for the final three rounds.

Firstly, looking at the big ones that everyone is gunning for: Tries and Assists. Tries are the highest scoring metric (apart from the Player of the Match award) with 10 points apiece, and leading the way is Ellie Kildunne (four tries) and Hannah Botterman and Vittoria Vecchini (two tries each). Try assists have been a bit more evenly spread with 14 players recording assists, and three of these on two assists (Mo Hunt, Lucy Packer and Holly Aitchison).

With the overall fantasy scoring this year generally being lower than in previous years, the value of a reliable kicker is significant. Leading the way with points earned from kicking is Lina Queyroi with 16 points gained from Conversions (two points) and Penalties (three points). Helen Nelson has also had a good contribution with the boot, racking up 10 points from kicking metrics with Holly Aitchison, Dannah O’Brien and Keira Bevan close behind.

When it comes to attacking stats like Metres Gained (one point per 10m carried) and Defenders Beaten (two points), this is where we find some of the highest scoring players in the game. For metres gained, Kildunne again leads the way with 317m carried, translating to 24 points overall, with Romane Menager (246m) and Abby Dow (180m) also up there. While for defenders beaten it is Romane Menager and Beibhinn Parsons who are topping the stats so far (both on 10 defenders beaten, and so 20 points each from defenders beaten alone).

Moving into some of the stats that are more tailored towards the forwards in Breakdown Steals, Lineout Steals and Tackles, and one of the stars of the tournament so far, Evie Gallagher, stands out in terms of breakdown steals with five - one more than her nearest challenger, Kelsey Clifford. With five points per breakdown steal, Gallagher has accumulated 25 points purely from her work at the breakdown. In terms of lineout steals, five players are tied on two lineout steal after the first two rounds: Rose Galligan, Zoe Aldcroft, Valeria Fedrighi, Louise McMillan and Isabella Locatelli. With seven points per lineout steal, this is a huge points-scoring opportunity and one to monitor carefully for the rest of the tournament.

Finally, those with high tackle counts will slowly but surely rack up points over the course of the tournament. With one point per tackle, you’ll need to select someone who provides tackles in high volume, and the likes of Neve Jones (35 tackles), Zoe Aldcroft (35 tackles), Alex Stewart (32 tackles) and Alex Callender (32 tackles) have all seriously delivered in this respect.

Finally, there have been some excellent supersub options so far in this year’s Guinness Women’s Six Nations. None more so than Connie Powell, who has played 69 minutes off the bench in this year’s tournament, and in that time has carried for 133 metres, scored a try, made 11 tackles and beaten eigh defenders. For a supersub, you want players who are guaranteed a good run off the bench. Beatrice Veronese, Emma Stevanin, Gaia Maris, Ambre Mwayembe and Fiona Tuite all fall under this category, having played 50 minutes or more off the bench.

Plenty of food for thought there for your selections for round three onwards, but now let's take a look at some fascinating numbers based on recent history that may throw some additional fantasy options your way.

Looking at the round three matches, there are some definite trends in the historical data worth considering. Firstly, Scotland v England in Edinburgh. While England may be huge favourites, don’t rule out Chloe Rollie. Since the start of the 2020s, Rollie is the only player to have scored more than one try against England, crossing the line in each of her last two Championship games against them. Having been on the bench for the first two games, she will be ready to make a big impact this weekend.

Speaking of the bench, England’s Marlie Packer will be starting Saturday as a substitute, and could be an inspired supersub choice. Since 2020, no player has scored as many tries against a single opponent as Packer has against Scotland (seven). Looking to Ireland’s game in Cork against Wales, Beibhinn Parsons has already beaten the equal highest number of defenders this year, and she will surely add to that tally on Saturday. Looking at Guinness Women’s Six Nations stats since 2020, no player has beaten more defenders against Wales than Parsons (21) - her tally of 12 against them in 2021 was the second most by any player in a single Championship game this decade.

In round four, Ireland have a tough match-up when they travel to Twickenham, but there is definitely reason to invest your fantasy stars in them for this visit. Last year, Neve Jones made 25 tackles without missing any - at least four more than any other player to maintain a 100% success rate during a match last year. Meanwhile, when the Azzure face Scotland in round four, you can look to Italy’s back three for options, and in particular Vittoria Ostuni Minuzzi, who gained 163 metres against Scotland in the 2023 Championship - the second most of any player in a single game during last year's tournament.

Finally, on Super Saturday in round five, three players who will be looking to recreate previous exceptional performances are Zoe Aldcroft, Chloe Rollie and Pauline Bourdon Sansus. England's Aldcroft stole three lineouts against France in the 2021 Guinness Women's Six Nations, the joint-most by any player in a single game in the Championship this decade. Scotland's Rollie beat 13 defenders against Ireland in the 2023, the most by any player in a single game during last year's Championship. Finally, France's Bourdon Sansus has made four line breaks against England, more than any other player against the Red Roses since 2020.

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