After two rounds, England and France are the only unbeaten teams. An upset at the expense of either could sabotage their chances of winning the title, with the stakes in the Championship increasing week-on-week. As for the other four nations, an unprecedented level of competitiveness opens opportunities for record-breaking campaigns. Round 3 is critical for the hopes of each competitor, and insights presented by Sage illustrate the keys to the game for each team.
England have looked assured in the opening two rounds, backing up recent years of dominance in the Championship with forceful performances. The fearsome pace and accuracy of their attack has been critical to their success: they are currently the only team who has averaged over a kilometre of passing metres per match (1,133). England give their powerful ball-carriers the opportunity to beat defenders with the width of their passing, particularly past the No 10. Individually, Holly Aitchison has made more passing metres than any other fly-half (307). Her average pass distance of 6.7 metres is second only to teammate 7.6 metres. Thus far, England have effectively leveraged the skill of their stand-offs to bring out the best of their potent attacking threats.
A consequence of the relentlessness of the English attack is that they tend to dominate possession. This has seen them average a Championship-high 9.3 passes per kick in the opening two rounds. Scotland will need to apply pressure to the English breakdown to give them the opportunity to keep the scoreboard rolling. Scotland have made less territory from penalty kicks than any other team, a total of 137 metres. This is demonstrative of their failure, thus far, to pressure their opposition into making mistakes. More penalties mean more lineouts, and Scotland proved last weekend that their maul is an effective weapon. They have thrown to the back as many times as any other Championship team (five), and last weekend used a long throw to catch the French defence off-guard and drive over for their only score. How effectively Scotland can disrupt the English attacking rhythm will be directly proportional to their success.
Ireland and Wales will both have a point to prove after Round 2. 15 points down heading into the final quarter, Ireland made a late claim to their match against Italy to finish within six points of their opposition. The final whistle interrupted their comeback, but Ireland will be dangerous if they carry this momentum into Round 3. Ireland played a lot of rugby against Italy, making a total of 254 passes – more than any other team in a Championship match this season. When they have kicked in the opening two matches, they have kicked long, making an average of 30.2 metres of territory gain per kick to get themselves out of trouble. Working tirelessly for results – Ireland have now lost seven Championship matches on the bounce – if they focus on playing in the right areas consistently, they will find their efforts in attack more appropriately rewarded.
This will be particularly crucial against Wales, whose discipline has afforded them huge territorial advantages in the opening two rounds. On average, Wales have conceded the least territory from penalty kicks per match (59 metres) and gained the most (135 metres). Wales will also be a wounded animal after their significant loss to England. The Red Roses may be favourites for the Championship, but a 36-point loss will inspire a big reaction in any circumstances. Wales have made fewer passing metres than any other team in the opening two rounds, an average of 659 per match. This is largely due to their strategy of using short passes to bring their powerful forwards into the game: their average pass distance is the shortest in the Championship (five metres). Wales’ game will be decided by how often they can get within punching distance of the Irish try line.
France host Italy in the final fixture of Round 3. France are lethal when attacking in transition. Their dynamic pack and pacy backs come into their own when returning kicks and after winning turnovers. In order to create these scenarios, France have made an average of 696 kick-in-play metres per match – more than any other team. They are happy to put boot to ball when it doesn’t suit them to play. This doesn’t inhibit their imagination with the ball though, with the French halfbacks happy to experiment with different kicking options. In fact, they have made more attacking kicks – chips, crossfield, and grubbers – than any other team, a total of 15.
Italy will try to fight fire with fire on this front. They have averaged fewer passes-per-kick than any other team (5.8) and made fewer passing metres against Ireland than any other team has made in a Championship match (608). However, they exerted huge pressure in Round 2 which saw them rewarded with a win. To meet the challenge of the French – England’s main rivals for the title – Italy will need to improve their discipline from previous rounds though: they have conceded a Championship-high average of 145 metres of territory per match. Can they back up their performance last weekend with a second win? Any upset this weekend will drastically affect the outcome of the 2024 Guinness Women’s Six Nations.
