With two rounds remaining of the 2024 Guinness Women’s Six Nations, there is plenty at stake for every competing team. With the data presented by Sage, we can take a far closer look at exactly how the remaining two rounds are shaping up. At the top of the table, reigning Champions England and France – runners-up in the last four Championships – are separated by a single bonus point. Once again, it looks like the title will be claimed by one of these sides in the final match of the Championship. However, a slip up in the penultimate round could cost either side their crowning glory. Following Ireland’s emphatic win over Wales in Round 3, the rest of the table is more competitive than ever. All of Ireland, Italy, and Scotland have won one match and are separated by bonus points alone. Wales are yet to win in this seasons’ Championship, but just two results stand between them or any of their rivals climbing up the table.
England and Ireland kick off Round 4 at the Home of Rugby, Twickenham Stadium. So far in the Championship, the Red Roses are flying. Despite two red cards in their opening three matches, they have executed their gameplan unfazed and have dominated their opposition thus far. Such is the quality of their ball retention and movement, they are the only team that has made over 600 passes in the Championship. They also have the longest average pass distance in the Six Nations (5.6 metres), stretching opposition defences and allowing their scintillating outside backs time on the ball. Ellie Kildunne has reaped the rewards of this wide attack, having scored six tries in three matches; no other player in the Championship has scored more than two. England are rampant and seem only to be improving, can anybody stop them?
Ireland will meet England full of confidence after an impassioned, dominant performance against Wales. Ireland’s win in Round 3 was their first in the Championship since its 2022 iteration. Under new head coach, Scott Bemand, this side has improved quickly and consistently, match-upon-match. Against Wales, they applied huge pressure via the boot, making more kicks in play than any other team in Round 3 (27). This was the first match this season in which they made more kicks than their opposition. However, territory is clearly a growing focus for Ireland, who have averaged the longest kick distance per kick (31.4 metres) and the most kicking metres per match (669). In the last round, what really improved though was Ireland’s ability to take advantage of field position. Their ruck speed was pacy and their attack threatening. Aoibheann Reilly – who has made a Championship-high 1,647 passing metres – was key to this improvement. Playing against the Red Roses is the toughest test in the game, how will Ireland rise to it?
Italy host Scotland in the second match of the weekend, with both sides looking to bounce back from punishing defeats in Round 3. Italy have the most identifiable kicking strategy in the Championship: kick short, kick contestable. They have made 18 more box kicks than any other team – a total of 28 – and averaged the fewest kicking metres per kick in the Championship (22.2 metres). However, any kicking strategy risks disrupting possession and limiting attacking opportunities: the relative risk and reward must always be considered. In Round 2, extreme pressure on the Irish backfield was enough to earn Italy a win. In Round 3 – when Italy’s pass-to-kick ratio was the highest of any team (10.7) – dangerous attackers such as Alyssa D’Inca had opportunities to cause damage, but France were afforded opportunities in the Italian half. Finding a balance which allows Italy to unleash their attack but limit opposition chances will be key in determining their fortunes this weekend.
Scotland, on the other hand, were starved of opportunities to play in Round 3. Against England, they became the first team this season to make fewer than 100 passes in a match (96). The Red Roses are undoubtedly a force to be reckoned with, but Scotland will be frustrated to have found so few opportunities in the game. In particular, this is because Scotland want to hold on to possession to break down their opposition. To this end, they have made the joint-fewest kicks in play in the Championship so far (51). Desperate to get a foothold in their match against England, they made the fewest kicks outright in Round 3 (17). This weekend, Scotland will need to exert greater control over possession to allow them to claim a crucial win away from home. Competing hard in the air for Italy’s contestable kicks could give them a great platform from which to threaten Le Azzurre.
Finally, Wales host France at Cardiff Arms Park. It has been a challenging Championship for the hosts thus far, with Wales’ narrow loss in Round 1 followed by two heavy defeats. In Round 3, Ireland eclipsed Wales’ passing metres, making 1,247 compared to 716. Wales’ total passing distance has increased week-on-week, but they are yet to beat their opposition in this area this season. Wales have previously looked to utilise the power of their pack with shorter passes, and have averaged the shortest passing distance in the Championship this season (5.2 metres). However, they have lacked the ball retention to build pressure with their heavy carriers. To rectify this against a strong French side, they will need to take advantage of the opportunities provided by their discipline. Wales have conceded the least territory from penalty kicks to touch and gained the most, averages of 73 and 138 metres per match. Wales should capitalise on the continuity they’re achieving with their discipline by being equally accurate with ball in hand.
France will be determined to claim another big win before they face England next weekend. Three from three so far, their performances seem to have improved throughout the Championship. Could this weekend be the final stepping stone before an historic crescendo? France’s performance against Italy in Round 3 was certainly compelling. Blending dynamic forward carrying with skilful running in the backline, the French attack looked slick in their last outing. 52% of France’s passes this season have travelled between zero and five metres; 9.4% have travelled over ten; both are the highest percentages in the Championship. Everybody in the French attacking machine knows their role: forwards carry tight at pace, backs move the ball wide and stretch the defence. It is simple, archetypal rugby executed with immense precision. Nonetheless, this weekend is another opportunity for France to build momentum in the final stages of the Championship; nothing short of a win will do.
